I don't know what causes autism. But I think the jury is in - it's not the vaccines.
Do vaccines cause autism?
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Some parents claim they do. But there are many many studies that show no link between vaccines and autism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMR_vaccine_controversy#Recent_studies
The Danish study of half a million kids is most interesting in that list.
Also, many parents have stopped vaccinating, or are vaccinating less over the past 10 years
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-immunization29-2009mar29,0,3148179.story
but the rate at which autism is diagnosed is still climbing, unchanged:
http://www.fightingautism.org/idea/autism.php
If autism was caused by vaccines, and if many parents (as many as 40% in some wealthy California districts) are choosing to not vaccinate, shouldn't we see SOME change in the rate of autism diagnosis?
Is there an autism epidemic?
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It sure seems like it, doesn't it? You never used to hear about it, then came Rain Man, then came Jenny McCarthy, Jim Carrey, Larry King and Oprah, and now everyone has an autistic kid.
So if autism is rising, all things being equal, then we should see more kids applying for special education assistance in school, right?
But we don't. We see about the same number (as a % of population) getting special attention in school that we saw 10 years ago. But more of them are diagnosed as having "autism spectrum disorder" and fewer are diagnosed with other disorders.
http://www.autismstreet.org/weblog/?p=297
Other studies are similar. There may be a slight rise in actual cases of autism, but it's hard to see through all the "switched diagnoses" and the effect of greater awareness of the condition: "Honey, I just learned on Oprah that Johnny is autistic."
How did this vaccine-autism thing start?
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In 1998 Dr. Andrew Wakefield at the Royal Free Hospital in England concluded, based on a study of 12 kids, that there was a connection between the MMR vaccine and autism. Since then, it has been learned that:
what he said about the kids medical histories was not true;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article5683671.ece
10 of the 12 doctors who co-authored the study removed their names from the study and published a retraction saying: "We wish to make it clear that in this paper no causal link was established between MMR vaccine and autism as the data were insufficient.";
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autistic_enterocolitis#.22Retraction_of_an_interpretation.22
While they were criticizing the MMR vaccine, Wakefield and the Royal Free Hospital were filing patent applications for an ALTERNATIVE VACCINE!
http://briandeer.com/wakefield/vaccine-patent.htm
Wakefield now faces professional misconduct charges.
Yes, he's a charismatic guy who seems really sincere in his desire to help people. But I fear he will be remembered by history as a major contributor to a resurgence of deadly diseases.
Is it really possible that this is all just hype??
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Over the past 6 years, Americans convinced themselves that (1) it was just fine to give mortgages to people who had no down payment and no income; and (2) these mortgages became valuable assets when repackaged and sold by banks.
The entire premise is absurd, yet we ALL fell for it, and our economy is in shambles.
Yes, it's possible for people to get fooled by hype, fooled in MASSIVE numbers. We're in a period where science=unnatural=bad. After all, sticking a needle into a baby just seems grossly unnatural, and unnatural is bad, right? So blaming vaccines for SOMETHING just feels right.
The problem is, diseases are natural, and they are bad. Very bad.
http://nielsenhayden.com/makinglight/archives/010978.html
So many people are focused on validating their concerns and finding a link between vaccines and autism. But study after study shows no link.
So we're wasting valuable dollars that could be spent on primary research into the actual causes and effects of autism. And we're wasting money that could be spent on designing better vaccines.
And to the person who claimed nobody will fund a blinded study - didn't Jim Carrey give Jenny McCarthy $20 million to spend on anti-vaccine advocacy? Maybe she should reach across the table, ask someone like Paul Offit to join with her in funding and controlling just such a study. If they're both involved, then everyone can be satisfied that the results are impartial. And such a study would probably cost less than one of Carrey's cars.
It bothers me when people spend more money demanding the government for some program than the program itself actually costs.